The Foraker Group

In November 2022, when the world seemed to be emerging into a new pandemic-intense reality, I spent some time talking about the decisions we make every day or more specifically, what tools we can access to make those decisions just a little bit easier.

Today, in a very different world, one where some in political power see our sector as “a problem” instead of part of a “solution” as we were in the pandemic, the impact of the choices we make feel a little heavier.

That said, right now we are noticing what I am calling the “eye of a storm.” Metaphorically, I have been trying to put my finger on the strange energy I have felt and heard our team reflect on recently. I hear words like “stuck” and “unknowing” and “groups don’t know what to ask for, but clearly they need help.” But we agreed that those words fall short. So I thought about January through July of this year, when it felt like every day a new piece of information would tear open our hearts and our organizations. Where our position of “head on a swivel” meant paying attention to lawsuits, executive orders, the actions of Congress, nonprofit experiences of freezing, pausing, opening up of funds, sometimes all in the same breath. And then, the tax bill passed, and things shifted.

To be sure, the executive orders keep coming—this week was more bad news for our sector. The lawsuits keep going on, the people being targeted by the government and the organizations that serve them continue to feel intense, life-altering pressure. But for many groups in the eye of the storm, the wait has now begun.

We wait for the federal fiscal year. We wait for the current funding to end. We wait for the lawsuits to settle. We wait for the impact of the decisions that have already been made but not yet announced.

This moment of waiting is not stagnant. It is the perfect time to look inward and outward. To think. To plan, to gather your team and larger teams. To ask important questions and maybe even bigger questions about what we want to find on the other side of the storm – to see what survived and what can be rebuilt even better. And yes, this is also the time to find comfort and, if necessary, to take shelter.

Living in the eye of the storm is only a false calm, an electric energy. It is not over. Not even close. I know each of you is processing this time differently and experiencing it differently, just like those we serve.

For those looking for the next steps, I am revisiting the article, Unpacking Decisions: Five Ways to Find Your Ground, in today’s terms.

Know that regardless of where you are, or what you are facing, we are ready to help you with your planning, to use these tools, to be a thought partner – with so much support. May this latest version help you know you have options and that you do not have to endure the storm alone.

Whew! Decisions. Every day in every way. Life changing and insignificant – each one is called the same thing, but wow, are they different. Sometimes the sheer volume of them can make even the insignificant feel hard. As humans, of course, we are always making choices – even choices that don’t feel like a choice. For many of you, your choices have a significant impact on people’s lives or on the stability of your missions. These are the choices I am thinking about at the moment – when our responsibility is always to “leave it better than we found it” – when all is as it should be – bigger than a person, a point in time, a single idea. These are the choices in our volatile and uncertain world I am thinking about. So, how do we make these decisions in ways that reflect our job as mission stewards?

This is a time of great upheaval and uncertainty, where we simply don’t yet know what is on the other side. In this liminal space, or the space in-between, lies a world of possibilities – and dead ends.

The challenge of making decisions to keep moving forward is so important. Sometimes, it is about holding the right tool to get you there.

As you consider which of these tools to pick up, consider your organizational culture, the capacity of your team to engage, and how you navigate the choices both in and out of your organization’s locus of control.

1. Unpack it: We love a decision matrix in our sector. Truly, we tend to matrix everything. Why do we like them? Well, because they help us unpack the challenge not just for ourselves but in a way that others can dive in together and discuss their perspectives on the issues and topics playing out in their collective space. The gift is not just in the categorization but in the dialogue. Please hear that part especially – it is not just you at your desk unpacking things into quadrants or categories, it is the group journey that is essential.

There are so many examples to choose from, but three we use frequently are The Cynefin Framework, the Mission-Money Matrix, and a risk assessment matrix. I encourage you to check out the Mission-Money Matrix handout for a step-by-step guide to using the tool. At the heart of the definition of complexity, the Cynefin Framework, created by David Snowden in 1999, is a Welsh word for habitat or the idea of finding place. This framework is an opportunity to understand that not all challenges are the same and, therefore, not all decisions are the right match. In its simplest form, the framework asks us to categorize our challenges so that we can then match the right amount of time, money, resources, tools, people, and decisions to find a solution. I still remember my biggest “a-ha” moment with the framework came when I suddenly understood why so many decisions that nonprofit board and staff were making were not returning the expected results. Indeed, they had been – unknowingly – applying the same set of tools and resources to very different kinds of problems. This is the gift of so many matrix tools – the ability to dole out our energy and our resources to the places that matter the most. If you have an interest in using this framework, we encourage you to call us or dig deeper on your own into a vast network of resources and tools on the topic.

After you have determined the kind of challenge you are facing and the resources you need to move forward, it can help to assess your risk. Many versions of a risk matrix are available that range from general to the overall health of the organization to more specific related to people, money, programs, legality, partnerships, and more. A simple overall risk matrix invites the team to 1) establish the context of the risk, 2) name and analyze the severity of the risk by placing it in the right quadrant on the matrix where you measure probability on one axis and impact to mission on the other. This seemingly simple exercise can be profound in both helping to quiet anxiety about things that are actually less of a risk than first understood and guiding the group to focus on the areas that can be managed and planned for. You can find an example of one type of risk matrix here. When in doubt, matrix it out.

2. Picture it. I love words, and in planning and decision-making they are often our go-to source of expression. Still, words are imperfect because they can miss the essence of our intentions or the energy behind why that decision matters to our work. So, when faced with a decision, another tool is to show a picture, or paint or draw a picture that indicates what it would look like if your decisions resulted in success. This can be done by everyone finding or creating their own picture of what success looks like for the mission and then sharing the common traits, or it can be the culmination of everyone’s ideas into one picture. You can also use this idea to track progress from where the organization is now to where you want to go together. This is a wonderful way to weave in a cultural context and core values and to engage everyone in the energy of why the decision matters. When in doubt, draw it out.
3. See it as a progression. A version of a progression that is proving useful now is the scenario plan. This can be financially based first, or human-based with financial impacts, or program-centered with financial and human impacts. Any way you center it, most scenario plans have a best, mid, and worst-case scenario. While it takes some work to plot these options, there’s more to do when you’re done. Now the work is to live those options in real life, which can often devolve quickly into feelings of frustration. Turn those choices into a progression instead. For some, it can also feel like decisions that jump from one extreme to another, rather than understanding that the ultimate choice is actually a series of smaller choices along the way, where each major step has a risk assessment or choices between them. Viewing the choices as stepping-stones from one to the next or pulling apart the choices can help the team ask essential questions like “what are the short and long-term definitions of success in each scenario,” and “how does each choice serve our mission in this moment.” It also helps the team avoid jumping too quickly to solutions and tactics they may or may not fully understand. For most, this progression creates enormous opportunities to go deeper and ask questions that lead to different decisions than when we just smoosh the whole thing together. When in doubt, step it out.
4. Envision it. One of the ways we are seeing groups getting stuck is the hesitancy to look too far ahead, and yet, as we have talked about before in a discussion about living in liminal space, it is actually envisioning the longer-term destination that helps us take the necessary leap. Every day, we see the propensity to think incrementally – to fix what is immediate and in front of us. But if we are to be the best stewards of our time, money, and energy, we need to make decisions with the larger destination in mind. Engage the team with crafting (in words or pictures) a short definition of long-term success. Envisioned futures are not vision statements or goals; they help us know why success matters for the people or community we serve. It drives us forward with energy and strength. It propels us to thrive and not just survive as we move from our immediate transactional decisions closer to the transformational change we seek. At Foraker, our favorite tool in this toolbox is a strategic plan that takes the organization out a decade and then works its way back to current reality with the help of an annual plan. Both define success in bigger terms than today. Both are deeply rooted in values (otherwise they are just anyone’s goals, not yours) and each considers locus of control for you, your partners, your community, etc. In times of uncertainty, having a clear understanding of the ultimate “whys” of the organization are essential to moving any work forward. When in doubt, envision it out.
5. Be it. It is also true that sometimes the best decision is “the tincture of time.” Waiting too long is a decision all its own, but certainly, while we wait for the eye of the storm to pass and you have done what you can do, then taking some time and space to just be with your team is enough. If breathing together, sitting in the uncertainty together, taking in the information together, grieving together (if needed), celebrating together (if appropriate) – to just be where you are right now – then take it. And if it offers you a bit more clarity – act on it. When in doubt, space it out.

There are more ways to get to where you want to go. These are just a few. Give them a try or call us. This is the work we love to do with you.

–Laurie

1. Amidst all this planning, if you are also looking for other things to do, here is a list we recommend for working through during this uncertain time. What should I be doing now? Eight steps to manage risk and move strategically.